Macau’s economy has shown significant signs of recovery in 2024, with the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) reaching MOP204.3 billion (US$25.5 billion) in the first half of the year. This marks a real year-on-year growth of 15.7%, bringing the overall economic size back to 86.2% of the pre-pandemic level from the same period in 2019. Notably, this is the first time that Macau’s GDP has surpassed the MOP200 billion mark since the pandemic, signaling a robust rebound.
Growth fueled by tourism and gaming services:
As Inside Asian Gaming reports, the Macau Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) attributes this economic resurgence primarily to a substantial increase in visitor arrivals and a corresponding rise in tourism activities. The influx of tourists has led to continuous growth in service exports, a crucial component of Macau’s economy. Specifically, exports of gaming services have surged by 39.9% year-on-year, while exports of other tourism-related services have seen a modest increase of 2.8%. Impressively, both categories have exceeded their levels from the first half of 2019 by over 20%, reflecting a strong recovery in the region’s key sectors.
The DSEC highlighted that service exports accounted for 81.8% of Macau’s GDP at current prices in the first half of 2024, totaling nearly MOP167.03 billion (US$20.8 billion). This marks the first time since early 2019 that service exports have contributed such a significant portion to the economy, underscoring the pivotal role of tourism and gaming in driving economic growth.
The economic revival in Macau is also mirrored in the increase in residents’ incomes, which has fueled growth in private consumption. During the first half of 2024, private consumption expenditure rose by 7.8% compared to the previous year. Within this, household final consumption expenditure in the local market increased by 7.0%, while external expenditure grew by 13.5%. These figures indicate that both local spending and expenditures abroad have contributed to the economic upturn, supported by higher household incomes and increased consumer confidence.
According to Asia Gaming Brief, in the second quarter of 2024, Macau’s GDP continued to grow, albeit at a slightly slower pace, with a year-on-year real growth rate of 6.9%. The total economic size during this quarter was equivalent to 85.2% of the same period in 2019. Service exports, which remain a cornerstone of Macau’s economy, grew by 6.1% year-on-year during this period. Notably, gaming service exports increased by 22.6%, though there was a 9.5% decline in exports of other tourism services, indicating some areas of concern within the broader tourism sector.
Outlook for 2024 and beyond:
Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) has also seen a substantial increase, rising by 36.7% year-on-year to MOP132.2 billion (US$16.4 billion) between January and July 2024. This strong performance in gaming revenue is a testament to the sector’s recovery, which has been central to Macau’s economic resurgence.
Looking ahead, analysts from CLSA have forecast that Macau’s casino GGR could reach MOP232.7 billion (US$28.6 billion) for the entire year of 2024, reflecting a 27% increase year-on-year. However, the brokerage has slightly lowered its 2024 GGR estimates by 3%, taking into account the Macau casino regulator’s reported GGR of MOP56.4 billion (US$7 billion) for the second quarter of 2024, which was 1.6% lower than the first quarter. This downward adjustment has been partly attributed to the impacts of China’s crackdown on illegal money exchanges, which has had a dampening effect on gaming revenues.
Despite these challenges, Macau’s overall economic outlook remains positive, driven by the sustained recovery in tourism and gaming services. As the region continues to navigate post-pandemic challenges, the growth in GDP and service exports provides a solid foundation for future economic stability and expansion.
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